Gather round y’all, I’m about to tell you the story of a show that boosted its ratings with queerbaiting, then threw it all away. Of course, that show is Supernatural.
*turns on flashlight*
A “lead in” is the show that comes on before your show. If you air after a big hit, some of the viewers will stay on the channel for awhile. Even if they switch off after 15 minutes, it still gets averaged into your show’s hour rating and can pad your viewership.
If there’s a high correlation between the week-to-week ratings of the lead in and your show, it suggests that you’re riding its coattails. Not carrying your own weight.*
*Caveat: It could also mean that you have naturally overlapping audiences and the viewers would watch both anyway, e.g. Shondaland, NCIS.
Now back to Supernatural –
In season 8 aka “Season Queerbait,” it was paired with Arrow’s debut season. As you can see in the chart, Arrow had a spring slump. Supernatural did not. Supernatural’s ratings defied the trend for aging shows that year and reversed the slow decline that had taken it to its lowest point in season 7. People were tuning in to watch that show, regardless of whether they were interested in Arrow. Zero correlation between the ratings for the two shows.
Maybe, just maybe, people were tuning in because they thought they were about to witness the first openly bisexual male lead character on US broadcast tv. I’ll leave you to your own conclusions.
On to season 9 aka “Season WTF.” Supernatural came on after The Original’s debut season. At first there was little relationship in their ratings. But when The Originals took a dive in the spring, Supernatural went right down with it. Moderate correlation.
Finally, season 10 aka “Screw This.” In the fall, Supernatural came on after smash hit The Flash. Then Supernatural moved nights and sunk. The correlation is very strong. It suggests Supernatural did okay because CW’s #1 show leaked viewers to it. But when it went away, so did ratings.
Moral of the story: Canonize your queerbaited ship. Or else hide your dwindling following behind another show’s success.
The latter is not a good long term business strategy because it takes that time slot away from a newer show that could benefit. That’s why the CW moved iZombie to after The Flash, to introduce its viewers to a show they want to stick around for years to come. And that’s how Supernatural got shuttled off to Wednesdays where it promptly dropped below season 7 levels.
*turns off flashlight*